Mercury Maths: How to predict the nominees

It's impossible not to be cynical when Mercury Music Prize nomination day comes around each July. While equivalent awards spawned in countries like Canada, Ireland and Australia have appeared fair and transparent, the album for the best UK and (ahem) Irish album of the year has always come across as anything but. With more token picks than a bad Scottish rugby team on a British and Irish Lions tour, the last 18 years of shortlists make for some bizarre reading. Anyone heard much from Dina Carroll, Black Star Liner and Zoe Rahman of late?

Taking a stab at who might make the cut is therefore always prefaced by a "here's who I think should be..." and followed by a "here's who I think will be." It can actually make predicting the Mercury nominees quite a lot of fun and we think it may also lend itself to a foolproof plan for guessing those "will be's" correctly....

THE DEAD CERTS:
Just as there was little doubt Florence, Glasvegas and The Horrors would get a nod last year, there are three albums that are on EVERYONE's predictions list this time around. And deservedly so too because Ragged Words reckons the night itself will very likely be a tussle between Wild Beasts, The XX and Laura Marling. The rest can happily get pissed up on champagne knowing a speech won't be required.

Should be: Wild Beasts - Two Dancers; The XX - XX; Laura Marling - I Speak Because I Can 
Will be: Wild Beasts - Two Dancers; The XX - XX; Laura Marling - I Speak Because I Can 

THE LONE DANCER:
Back when dance music firmly crossed over to the mainstream in 90's Britain, Death In Vegas sat happily next to Leftfield on nominee lists and Faithless beside Underworld. A couple of underground dance acts (to pardon a massive generalisation) even walked away with the award when Roni Size and Talvin Singh recorded two surprise wins in three years. It's become more of a lonesome affair of late and we fear this year might prove unfairly harsh to the brightest and best of British and Irish electronica.

Kieran Hebden should finally get some Mercury recognition after all of his previous Four Tet records - and 2003's Rounds in particular - have each been overlooked. Fuck Buttons, too, released an album this year that soared to new aural heights and should (there's that word again) be on enough judge's radars by this stage. Obviously, in an ideal world, we'd love to see Ikonika and Hunter-Gatherer considered too but this is a world in which there are a couple of soft option available to judges in the form of Hot Chip and Massive Attack. And although the former's One Life Stand should certainly be in the mix, we reckon both will make this afternoon's list (see big guns).

Should be: Four Tet - There Is Love In You and Fuck Buttons - Tarot Sport 
Will be: Hot Chip - One Life Stand or Massive Attack - Heligoland

THE 'URBAN' ARTIST:
'Urban' isn't a term you'll see used on these pages very often but check the Mercury records and you'll note it's a box that's rarely left unchecked. Many have deserved it: Roots Manuva's Run Come Save Me (2002), Dizzee Rascal's Boy In Da Corner (2003) and last year's unfairly maligned winner Speech Debelle. But then there are the others - the Floetry, Sway's and TY's of this world. While the BBC may have stuck their neck out for King Midas Sound, they kind of poured cold water on the idea that judges would be as brave when noting The Bug's absence last year. We can't pick a viable standout this year so - presuming M.I.A's mess of a new record will rub enough judges up the wrong way - it'll clearly therefore fall to Dizzee.

Should be: --
Will be: Dizzee Rascal - Tongue n' Cheek 

ONE FOR THE UNCUT/MOJO READERS:
In the absence of another Robert Plant & Alison Krauss collaboration or a third very good Arctic Monkey's record, could this be the year when the brilliant Field Music sneak in as a representative for the 25-45 year-olds among us? As great a winner as Field Music (Measure) would be, 60's reviving, and not 70's, will tempt the judges this year. While we might have said 'meh' to Erland & The Carnival's self-titled debut, Mojo, Uncut, Q, The Times... we could go on... deemed it four-star gold. The Brewis' brother genius will just have to wait a while longer to be recognised.

Should be: Field Music - Field Music (Measure)
Will be: Erland & The Carnival - Erland & The Carnival 


ONE FOR YOUR MUM:
A ludicrous category for sure but how else are we going to explain that the definition of mediocrity - Mumford & Sons' Sigh No More - made the grade? Seriously, how else?

Should be: --
Will be: Mumford & Sons - Sigh No More 

THIS YEAR'S FLORENCE:
As much as Florence may divide opinion here at Ragged Words HQ, everyone's in agreement that no UK pop star has come near her over the last 12 months. Nor has there been anyone nearly as slick as another of last year's nominees, La Roux, if we can be briefly permitted to put them in the same category. With Ellie Goulding destined for one of those "oh yeah, her" careers and Plan B's crooning surely to cringey for enough stomachs, there is only one pop option. But didn't Marina deliver a "pretty bleedin' annoying" debut in February? Sadly, we don't reckon enough judges will agree.

Should be: --
Will be: Marina & The Diamonds - The Family Jewels 


THE BIG GUNS:
The big names have, generally, come good over the last twelve months. While we've already noted that Hot Chip should be there or thereabouts, it's Gorillaz' Plastic Beach that really stands out among the big sellers. But given Damon Albarn's animated lot became the first and only band not to accept a nomination in 2001 (does that explain Demon Days absence then?), where does that leave them now? If it means the judges hands are tied, then both Massive Attack and Hot Chip will probably be two of the most recognised names on a becoming more unimaginative by the minute list.

Should be: Gorillaz - Plastic Beach 
Will be: Hot Chip - One Life Stand or Massive Attack - Heligoland 

BATTLE OF THE ART SCHOOL KIDS
Not a category in previous years and one unlikely to be repeated in the future, but we can't see room for two of the band's that featured on the now infamous "New Eccentrics" cover story run by the Observer Music Monthly in January, '08. Foals and These New Puritans didn't receive Mercury nominations for fine debuts that year but having returned with better second efforts, one of them must get on this time. We say These New Puritans. Our survey says Foals.

Should be: These New Puritans - Hidden
Will be: Foals - Total Life Forever

THE TOKEN JAZZ AND FINGER-IN-THE-EAR FOLK ARTISTS
The token category that really needs no introduction and the one that gets our goat the most. The great pity this year is that Polar Bear's Peepers - an almost certainty to make the cut - will be forever regarded as the token jazz inclusion while it's on many people's lists anyway and is on the verge of making our own not-very-jazzy selection. As for the folk box, couldn't Laura Marling's I Speak Because I Can fill it? The powers that be would, for whatever god forsaken reason, say no and Rachel Unthank will probably get a second, if slightly more deserved, nomination in three years.

Should be: --
Will be: Polar Bear - Peepers and The Unthanks - Here's The Tender Coming

So if we're refusing to play the game and pick token pop, urban, jazz and finger-in-the-ear folk records then what are we going to fill the four spots with?

THE "ONLY INTERNET FOLK GET US" CATEGORY:
Too often Ragged Words has checked its own fawning of albums like Frightened Rabbit's Midnight Organ Fight and Field Music's Tones Of Town against equally gushing reviews on Drowned In Sound, Pitchfork et al and been convinced that Mercury nominations were sure to follow. We're far more prepared for disappointment than when Male Bonding's blindingly good Nothing Hurts and Errors widely praised (our review got lost in the mail) Come Down With Me predictably fail to make the grade.

Should be: Male Bonding - Nothing Hurts; Errors - Come Down With Me 

THE LEFT OUT FOR NO GOOD REASON CATEGORY:
Villagers' Becoming A Jackal and Noah & The Whale's The First Days Of Spring could be included in the above category had Conor O'Brien not gotten four-star reviews from virtually every broadsheet newspaper with a printing press and Charlie Fink not get the most complimentary of 5-star reviews from The Sunday Times. These two are sure to be in the reckoning and we just hope our 'Mercury Maths' are a little off.

Should be: Villagers - Becoming A Jackal; Noah & The Whale - The First Days Of Spring 


WHAT WE'D LIKE THE LIST TO LOOK LIKE:
Wild Beasts - Two Dancers 
The XX - XX 
Laura Marling - I Speak Because I Can
Fuck Buttons - Tarot Sport 
Four Tet - There Is Love In You
Field Music - Measure 
These New Puritans - Hidden
Male Bonding - Nothing Hurts
Errors - Come Down With Me
Gorillaz - Plastic Beach
Villagers - Becoming A Jackal
Noah & The Whale - The First Days Of Spring

WHAT THE LIST WILL LIKELY LOOK LIKE:
Wild Beasts - Two Dancers 
The XX - XX 
Laura Marling - I Speak Because I Can
Hot Chip - One Life Stand 
Dizzee Rascal - Tongue n Cheek
Erland & The Carnival - Erland & The Carnival
Mumford & Sons - Sigh No More
Marina & The Diamonds - The Family Jewels 
Foals - Total Life Forever 
Massive Attack - Heligoland
Polar Bear - Peepers 
The Unthanks - Here's The Tender Coming

AND THE WINNER IS....
The XX are bound to be favourites but we reckon a cheeky tenner on Wild Beasts could buy you a few rounds in September.